Now is not the time for passive acceptance. Our health, wealth, liberty, and way of life are at stake, and so is our country
By Eitan Adut —-- Bio and Archives--March 29, 2020
It is the gross overreaction of certain government and business leaders to the Wuhan coronavirus of 2020, otherwise known as COVID-19, that is the danger to the United States, not the virus itself. The abundance of data show that the virus is far less dangerous than the seasonal flu, and if the overreaction is not stopped and reversed immediately, it will severely damage the economy and the lives that depend on it.
Number of people who will die of COVID-19 illness will be a small fraction of those who die of the flu every seasonThe Center for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that during the 2019-2020 flu season since September 29, 2019 approximately 23,000-59,000 have died of the flu out of 231,654 confirmed cases. That’s a confirmed case fatality rate (CCFR) of roughly 10% to 25%. As of March 26, there have been 1,305 fatalities among 86,043 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States. That is a CCFR of about 1.5%—which is only 6% to 15% of the CCFR of the flu. However, because most people with non-life threatening symptoms don’t present themselves to health facilities to be tested or counted for statistics, the CCFR for both illnesses vastly overestimate the actual chance of dying if infected: the infection fatality rate (IFR). To calculate the IFR, the number of fatalities is divided by the estimated number of people infected.
So how can we know what the IFR is for contracting COVID-19? If people who manifest similar symptoms are both hospitalized and tested for COVID-19 as they would be for the flu, then we can make a rough comparison between them. It is estimated by the CDC that about 38 to 54 million people have contracted the flu during the 2019-2020 season. If we divide the flu fatalities stated previously, by the estimated number of infections, it would mean a flu IFR that ranges from about 0.04% to 0.16%.
Left are already calling for using this opportunity to nationalize industries, socialize medicine, explode the debt, universalize the welfare state, and to violate constitutional rights and libertiesIf we know that the CCFR of COVID-19 is about 6% to 15% of the CCFR of the flu, then the IFR of COVID-19 is most likely a similar fraction of the IFR of the flu: 6% to 15% of 0.04% to 0.16% results in an IFR for COVID-19 of approximately 0.002% to 0.02%. By that fatality rate, if a similar number of Americans contract COVID-19 as contract the flu, the total number of fatalities in the U.S. from COVID-19 would be between 760 and 10,800—almost all of whom would be very elderly and infirm or immune compromised. That is only between one in 30,000 and one in 400,000 of all Americans. Even after the virus has run its entire course, under the worst case scenario, you would be much more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than die from COVID-19.
Given those numbers, it becomes clear that the number of people who will die of COVID-19 illness will be a small fraction of those who die of the flu every season. So we should be asking questions that the hysteria promoting media are apparently avoiding:
Health will not be the only casualty of the overreaction, so will the American way of life and what we are conditioned to tolerate. Freedom to do what we do best as individuals and to trade freely with others with reliable currency, under a reliable system of laws that protect our rights, is the reason that Americans enjoy such a high standard of living in general. So far, various leaders in both major parties have undermined all of those things. Americans are being threatened with arrest for going to going to work, going to church, operating and patronizing businesses, and being told that their currency will be inflated to pay companies and individuals for doing nothing—none of which have any basis in the federal or state constitutions. Those on the left are already calling for using this opportunity to nationalize industries, socialize medicine, explode the debt, universalize the welfare state, and to violate constitutional rights and liberties. If we allow these un-American precedents to be set over the pretext of dealing with an illness that could be less dangerous than the flu, is there any reason to believe that the American way of life and our current standard of living is likely to continue?
Many individuals and small businesses cannot survive weeks of no incomeWhatever your talent, skill, job, or business, do you believe that government interference helps you produce more and better goods or services at a lower cost? If not, then how would the emergence of a new virus change that? If the mandates, closures, and restrictions were not imposed, there would be no panic. Individuals and businesses would always move to fill any need, whether it be treatments and supplies for a fighting a disease, or new demand for certain household goods. Any shortages of ventilators, hospital beds, treatments, tests, and cures are the result of the heavy regulation over the field of medicine—many of which have come to the public’s attention due to the announcements of the temporary easing of some of them. The shortages in masks, toilet paper, and shelf-stable food items are caused by anti-gouging laws. Without them, prices could be temporarily raised to meet demand and discourage hoarding. What is worse, finding what you need at a temporarily elevated price, or not finding what you need at any price? Virtually everywhere you see shortages, government interference is responsible. Make no mistake: it is not the virus that is causing economic destruction: it is the government.
Many individuals and small businesses cannot survive weeks of no income. Not only will the proposed handouts not make up for their staggering losses, incurring debt to distribute printed “stimulus” or bailout money will cause even further economic destruction from inflation. If the state and federal governments ruin the economy with their overreaction, people will lose their jobs and businesses, goods and services will become more expensive, and quality of life will diminish. Time wasted in mandated idleness can never be recovered.
Many people will be misled to believe that the same government policies that caused the problems should be increased to solve them. That will make the adoption of a total welfare state, socialism, and a centrally planned economy more likely: all of which will permanently decrease quality of life and increase mortality far beyond what COVID-19 would ever have caused.
Our enemies are watching closelyAlso, our enemies are watching closely. If we paralyze ourselves and destroy our economy because of something that is not even as bad as the flu, they must be imagining what would we do to ourselves if the virus had been more deadly. What reason would they have to not use that form of attack? This kind of weakness must not be shown to our enemies.
The precedent should never be set that this is the way to deal with a new contagious disease: putting people in a panic with grim tones and dour faces, getting people accustomed to dictatorial edicts, violating people’s constitutional rights with shutdowns and travel restrictions, increasing debt for “stimulus” and bailouts, and getting people used to receiving checks for doing nothing. It would be much better instead for the government to do nothing. That way, they won’t further interfere with the ability of the free market to meet people’s needs, including solving the problems caused by this illness or any other illness.
If politicians feel the urge to deflect media criticism by taking action, they should take the opportunity to make it clear to the American people that they have determined that COVID-19 is less dangerous than the flu, immediately approve the existing vaccine and cure (hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin) for immediate use, repeal anti-gouging laws, and cut or eliminate the payroll tax. They should also immediately end all restrictions, and call off the bailouts, handouts, and “stimulus” bills. In fact, every American should contact their governors, congressional representatives, and the White House and insist on those things.
Now is not the time for passive acceptance. Our health, wealth, liberty, and way of life are at stake, and so is our country.
via Stop the COVID-19 Insanity Now
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